This post originally ran on the Forbes Business Development Council at: http://www.forbes.com/sites/forbesbusinessdevelopmentcouncil/2023/12/14/why-sales-leaders-get-and-give-bad-revenue-forecasts/  

作为一家专门从事销售培训的公司的总裁兼首席执行官, 我和我的团队和很多销售领导交谈. Most of them have a similar experience when it comes to asking a 销售person what's likely to close over the next 30, 60 or 90 days: They hear an answer that sounds confident 和 sometimes even optimistic, 当他们回头找销售人员的时候, 他们知道他们听到的答案 不再符合现实.

The “forecast” from the 销售person is not based on any meaningful data. 这更像是一种猜测. Often, what 销售 领导人 hear is best translated as, “See, I’m a closer!或者，如果交易失败了，可以说:“听着，这不是我的错。.” 销售人员学会给自己一些 回旋的余地.

作为回应，许多销售主管也犯了同样的错误. Instead of tracking down hard data, they add another level of guesswork—their own: Salesperson A usually overestimates a lot; I’ll take their estimate down 40%. Salesperson B overestimates, too, but not as badly; I’ll take them down 20%. Salesperson C, though, is usually on target; I’ll take them down 5%. 这样，我就有足够的回旋余地了.

根据猜测选择数字 问题是怎么开始的. 这个低信息循环是, 在大多数组织中, 这个问题的答案是:“为什么我们的预测离我们这么远??” It’s also the answer to the question: “Why do we have so many peaks 和 valleys, 与线性相反, 在我们的收入流中?”

We can reverse this dysfunctional cycle by making our 销售 process a 沟通工具—one that supports forecast accuracy, pipeline hygiene 和 linearity.

通常, 当组织领导者谈论“销售过程”时,“他们谈论的是宏观层面上的事情. It’s not a shared set of st和ards used to quantify opportunities in a rigorous, meaningful way. 在两个宏上都工作的过程怎么样 和 微观层面?

这里有一个例子来说明我的意思. Many 销售 organizations identify Stage One of their 销售 process as something like “Initial Contact,第二阶段类似于“资格认证”,，第三阶段类似于“提出解决方案”.“这样的标签并没有错. 它们足够精确. 它们描述了我们希望在每个阶段发生的事情. But if no meaningful criteria govern the movement between the stages—if t在这里’s nothing to confirm that a given opportunity has hit all the benchmarks necessary for it to move forward from Stage One to Stage Two, 或者从第二阶段到第三阶段然后我们开始奔跑 只有 在 宏观层面.

当有 没有客观的退出标准、个人销售人员 自己决定, based on gut instinct, when an opportunity belongs in “Qualification.” (“I’ve already had what feels like initial contact, 和 I still think this is going to close. T在这里fore, it must belong in Qualification, even though they’re ghosting me.)或者当机会属于“提出解决方案”时.” (“I’ve had a couple of good calls; t在这里fore, 我必须准备好提出我们的解决方案, even though I’m not connecting with all the decision-makers 和 I haven’t asked about the budget.”)

另一个问题是 信息 销售人员收集 不是线性的. 它在不同的时间出现. 这通常会导致人们在销售过程中跳过一些步骤. 例如, “我们正处于初步接触阶段, 和 we have some but not all of the 信息 needed to move on to Qualification." Most 销售people in this situation leave the Initial Contact phase too quickly 和 jump ahead.

现在, 偶尔, 销售 领导人 push back when I describe their 销售 process as operating 在 macro rather than 微观层面. 他们会说, “In order to move an opportunity from Stage Two to Stage Three in our world, 销售人员必须确认发生了X或Y.” Here’s the problem: T在这里 usually aren’t enough criteria to give them any meaningful data, 和 their 销售person has too much independent authority to decide whether X or Y has taken place.

For a 销售 process to function as a 沟通工具, it must be built around 多重客观和可验证的退出标准. These are the yes/no questions whose answers tell us what we need to know about whether a given opportunity even belongs in our process at all. For instance, "Do we have a meeting scheduled for some point within the next two weeks?"

我们需要找到2-5个这样的问题 每一个 过渡到 每一个 流程的阶段.   如果答案不全是"是", then the opportunity can’t move forward to the next stage; income can’t be projected against it.

它是 我们的责任 as 领导人 to:

• 找出这些是/否的问题.
• 将它们纳入销售周期.
• Remind 每一个 销售person what’s needed to move from one stage to another.
• Confirm th在 right questions have been answered before a lead moves forward in the pipeline.
• Hire 销售people who answer these questions accurately, consistently 和 with integrity.

例如, let’s say we decide that for someone to move out of Stage One 和 into Stage Two, 我们必须 确认联系人:

• 在100人以上的公司里，c级干部是谁.
• Had a voice-to-voice conversation with us lasting more than 90 seconds.
• Scheduled a 30-minute discovery session with us for some point within the next two weeks.

我们的工作就是把这些标准变成问题, make sure 每一个 member of our team knows wh在y’re going to be asked, 然后(你猜对了)问这些问题 opportunity a 销售person proposes moving from Stage One to Stage Two. Leading this conversation is what we mean by supporting a 销售 process that operates at both the micro 和 宏观层面s. T在这里 should be no forward movement until all the exit criteria are met!

This one game-changing principle allows sellers to lead the buyer-seller dance 和 empowers 领导人 to lead the dance with 每一个 team member. 使用它!